It’s been two years since the Federal Reserve first raised interest rates in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. While the hot topic of interest rate cuts hinted at in Powell’s speech has fueled optimism since last year, a growing number of economists and investors believe the hawkish stance is Continue Reading
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Blog #12 If trade tensions intensify further, can the U.S. and Chinese economies bear the economic costs?
After the United States experienced nearly 80 years of near-peace from its rise to its peak, China, the second largest economy, is likely to become the next new world order. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts in its latest World Economic Outlook that the U.S. economic growth will further decline Continue Reading
Blog #11 Will the Fed really cut interest rates so soon?
The Fed has raised the funds rate 11 times in two years since quantitative easing drove inflation out of control. Raising interest rates helped reduce inflation from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% this year. While Jerome Powell has signaled the Fed may delay rate hikes this year, a pause Continue Reading
Blog #10 Rolling recession in U.S. economy?
With interest rate hikes following quantitative easing nearing an end, the Chief Economist Outlook regularly paints a picture of nearly two-thirds of global economists believing a global recession is likely in 2023. This provides an interesting space to review what has happened to the economy in 2023. This year, economists Continue Reading
Blog #9 Who will be the next superpower in the next 10 years?
Although the U.S. and Chinese economies have been easing from Covid-19 lockdowns for more than two years, both economies face their own economic difficulties. If geopolitical conflicts cause prices to rise again, the U.S. economy may face the possibility of another interest rate hike. At the same time, China’s economic Continue Reading
Blog #8 Is the U.S. economy really headed for a soft landing? or, is it still a recession?
The latest economic report for the United States indicates that the economy has experienced an impressive growth of 4.9% in the last quarter. This is a significant improvement from the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and 2.2% in the first quarter. The growth was mainly attributed to personal consumption, Continue Reading
Blog #7 Created in China for Asia Factory
Following the China’s economic slowdown and its gloomy property outlook, instead of worrying about its likely declining export demand for ASEAN’s goods and service, the ASEAN countries might benefit economically from the Created in China concept. This enables Chinese companies to access business opportunities around the world. About a few Continue Reading
Blog #6 Slower China-ASEAN trade ties
In the first half of the year, by destination, China’s largest trading partner is ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries contributed 15.8% of China’s total export (Figure 1) and 14.7% of total import (Figure 2). This reflects the closer economic ties between China and ASEAN countries. By composition, Vietnam contributed 4% of Continue Reading
Blog #5 Depreciation of Asian currencies expands trade deficit, surprisingly
Since the economy is reopening last year, the prospects of Asian currencies are declining against greenback. Somehow, a cheaper currency can be beneficial for the economy, as it has a multiplier effect on encouraging exports and narrowing existing trade deficits. A trade deficit occurs when a country buys more goods Continue Reading
Blog #4 How will the RM depreciation affect the economy of Malaysia in the second half of the year?
The Malaysia ringgit (RM) has fallen to multi-month lows. The ringgit hit 4.748 per U.S. dollar on November 4, 2022, its lowest level since the outbreak of the 2020 outbreak. Despite a rebound in the first quarter of the year, it hit a year-to-date low of 4.6765 against the U.S. Continue Reading